Grand National 2019
Horse Racing – 5.15 pm
ITV
Tiger Roll. What hype. I’m not talking about the sushi of course, but the horse who is favourite to land this year’s Grand National. The Gordon Elliott-trained charge is at the head of the Grand National 2019 market. Bookmakers are expecting him to be potentially as short as 5/2 come the start of the Saturday’s race.
He could end up being the shortest priced favourite in the history of the famous race by the time the 40 runners head to the starters tape on the weekend.
Why The Hype?
So that leads to the question, why the hype? Well, he is the reigning champion. He hung on to beat Pleasant Company by a head in last year’s renewal of the Aintree classic. After his success twelve months ago he is going right up there in the handicapping weights. Tiger Roll is just one of two former winners of the race lining up for another crack. The other is One For Arthur who took the 2017 title.
Versatility is the key to Tiger Roll’s chances. He seems totally unconcerned about whatever distance is put out in front of him. While most of his races since 2017 have been around the 3m 6f distance, this season he took a win at Navas at over a mile less. He followed up that February win with another cross country triumph in March when he crushed the field by 22 lengths at Cheltenham.
Twelve months ago he was lined up as a 10/1 shot. He is going to be off at a much shorter price this go around as he strives to become the first horse since Red Rum to land back to back Grand National successes. Naturally, his cross country expertise puts him in good stead and the bookmakers would have a tough day if he were to win. There are reports of a Tiger Roll win costing the industry a potential £17 million.
The Flip Side
There is a flip side of course. At 7/2 odds-on in a field of forty over a gruelling 4 mile plus distance with 30 fences to get over, it’s not the most appealing of options for punters in such a wildly unpredictable race. This is a race where it’s not exactly unusual for horses to pulled down by others or to get bogged down in a pack or to simply refuse.
Look at last year’s disaster for favourite Total Recall who pulled up at the penultimate fence. Or strong contender Blaklion who was brought down at the very first jump. The only predictable thing about the Grand National is its unpredictability. Plus, the stats are against Tiger Roll as well if you are into that. Only three favourites have won the Grand National since 2000.
Each Way all the way
There is such a big tendency to lean on each way odds at the Grand National. Where in the field is the sweet spot for picking out each way options? Well, the average price of Grand National winners in the last ten editions is 11/1. So that means that you can afford to look a little bit beyond that.
Annibale Fly took fourth place in last season’s Grand National in a great run. He left everything out on the track as well at the recent Cheltenham Gold Cup where he bust a gut to land second place. That was such a tough race, it will have either steeled him for a big challenge or potentially left him a little short.
Rashivenden comes into the picture because of a fantastic win at Fairyhouse in February. The outstanding feature in that win over Alpha Des Obeaux (at a touch over three miles), was the immense staying power that he showed. Coupled with a win at Cheltenham in the National Hunt Challenge Cup last year over four miles, and a high official rating, he is around the 10/1 mark as joint second-favourite alongside Anibale Fly.
Scottish national winner Joe Farrell has staked his claims for a shot at the Grand National. The Welsh horse is always supremely fresh in the Spring. He could be lining up a good shot at making a challenge. He is going at 9-12 in the weights as well, which is hugely in his favour. I noticed over the last week, he has come from out at 50/1 to 20/1 with top bookmakers.
Ultima Feeders
The Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a good primer for Grand National options. From this year’s race, it is Lake View Lad and Vintage Clouds who both showed up well in place finishes behind Beware The Bear. The Ultima is a three miler. While the two could be evenly matched, Lake View Lad hasn’t been over 3m 3f and that could be important.
Eight of the last ten Grand National winners have been at least that distance before. Other popular showers at longer odds, around the 25/1 quote in the early markets are the likes of Pairofbrowneyes, Walk The Mill, Rock The Kasbah and Black Corton. I can’t sum up all the parts of this wonderful race in one article, my head’s already spinning with options. The only thing I know is that I can’t wait for the start.
Thunderous Excitement
This is the beauty of the Grand National, it is a rip-roaring, thunderous explosion of sporting action. You know there are going to be fallers, refusers and you know there is going to be drama. It is the ultimate race for office sweepstakes. It’s almost like a Holy Grail of horse racing betting, picking the winner out of such a head-twisting field.
Twelve months ago Tiger Roll was the shortest-priced winner of a Grand National since Don’t Put it in 2010 (also a 10/1 winner). Will he be delivering a hammer blow of a day for bookmakers by beating that mark and winning at an even shorter price at Aintree on Saturday?
