Friday night sees George Groves and Callum Smith put it all on the line in the final of the super middleweight World Boxing Super Series.
It’s been a long road for the both of them, starting out in the quarter-finals last autumn.
Groves’ route to the final has been explosive. A fourth round KO against fellow Brit Jamie Cox was followed by a dominant display against Chris Eubank Jnr in the semi-finals; The Saint has shown his maturity in the competition and has underlined why he is the WBA (Super) super middleweight champion of the world.
Smith’s route was less direct, and less dominant. It took the Liverpudlian twelve rounds to see off a game Erik Skoglund, getting the nod on the scorecards 116-112, 117-110 and 117-111. His semi-final was then changed in the week leading up to the bout after Jurgen Brahmer was forced to pull out injured; kick-boxer Nieky Holzken was his replacement, and the Dutchman was dispatched of comfortably in twelve rounds by Mundo.
So the final is here, and with the WBA (Super) super middleweight crown also on the line, the stakes are mighty high in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for this all-British contest.
Chris Eubank Jnr also returns to action on the undercard against un-fancied JJ McDonagh. Eubank Jnr was the first reserve for the final incase of injury, but instead of the main event, will contest ten round tick-over fight. The Brit is a 1/33 shot to win the fight with BetVictor, with limited value found in backing the Brighton-based fighter.
Where can we find value from Friday’s card?
George Groves to beat Callum Smith @ 8/11 (BetVictor)
There always seems to be value when George Groves in fighting. With a record of 28-3, the Hammersmith fighter has taste defeat to Carl Froch and Badou Jack in the past; maybe Callum Smith’s unbeaten record gives him more of a chance in the eyes of the odds compilers.
This being said, Groves has the game to add a ‘1’ to that column on Smith’s record. He has a quick and stiff jab capable of negating the reach that Smith will have over the world champion, and along with the experience of the biggest stages in boxing, Groves won’t fold over the twelve rounds.
Smith hasn’t been tested in his professional career and is still fairly green. An early KO against Rocky Fielding remains the best name on his CV, with his two WBSS fights showing his vulnerabilities. Groves has the power to trouble the challenger.
8/11 is a fantastic price for a fighter who is, and should be considered, a big favourite in this final.
George Groves vs Callum Smith over 9.5 rounds @ 4/9 (BetVictor)
Big stakes are on the line in Jeddah, and with the lack of a vibrant adrenaline-filled crowd, this fight may take a while to get going. With this is mind, the over 9.5 rounds market looks sensible, with this one looking likely to be decided on the scorecards.
The first few rounds may prove hard to split, and as the contest rumbles on, Smith may be left looking for the knockout in the latter rounds. Groves will be comfortable in dealing with this scenario; he negated late Eubank attacks with ease in their semi-final contest.
