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How to Bet American Football Intelligently

American Football garners a tremendous amount of betting interest, not only over in the USA but across Europe as well. Just as with any sport you will have your favourites and you will have your dark horses and you will have your underdogs. It is a sport where you can dig down so deep in betting opportunities and markets that it can be a tricky thing to zone in on the right areas for you.

So how to bet American football intelligently may simply be a question of understanding the game a bit first. There is some logic to this that goes beyond stats. Of course, you can look at current standings in the AFC and if the top team is playing the bottom, then you immediately have a big idea of who is going to win that particular match up. But that, of course, creates a situation where there’s little value monetarily, or at least not without a big stake risk, in backing the favourite.

By knowing the game a bit, understanding the nuances of playing on the road, the power of a team’s set up in offence and defence, rivalries, star players and the like can really help you out in making intelligent betting decisions on the sport.

Show me the Moneyline

The money-what? The Moneyline will be an unfamiliar betting set up for a lot of European based punters who are more used to fractional and decimal odds. Most NFL markets for the match outright will be in Moneyline format. As an example of this, you may see the Philadelphia Eagles -600 at Dallas Cowboys +450. What this set up means is that you would have to bet 600 unit on the Eagles (the favourites) to win 100. The other option means that if you bet 100 units on the Cowboys you would win 450. You will also find Moneyline options for individual quarters and the halftime in NFL matches.

Points Spread

There are some sports that just lend themselves so well to handicap betting. While you’ll find it in everything from soccer to tennis, sports like rugby and American Football are actually more appealing. That is because the spread of points in a game are going to be bigger. That leads to more value variety. It is nothing much for an American Football match to end up 30-19 which is a much more dramatic scoreline than a 2-1 win for a soccer team.

Handicaps, or points spread if you like, are very appealing options. For example with a match between the San Francisco 49rs at Minnesota Vikings (the home team in NFL matches are listed second) may have an option of Vikings -7 in the Points Spread. What this means is that you can back them to win the match by a margin of more than seven points. If it’s exactly seven points their winning margin, that’s a ‘push’ and you lose.

Alternatively, you could back their opponents the 49s at +7 which means that you would back them to lose by no more than seven points in the match. So this is where Points Spread handicaps can be useful and often more valuable than straight single match outrights. If for example, the Vikings have their offence working well and have recently won by comfortable margins then you may not find too much of a stretch in moving them up to cover a -8 handicap for bigger value. Again this is part and parcel of how to bet on American Football intelligently. It’s not wise to just make calls like this off the top of your head.

Dig those Stats

Looking at these points spreads and how to bet American Football intelligently means one thing. Hitting those stats and hitting them hard. You can’t just pull out a random handicap margin out of thin air without backing it up. This is how the bookies can be beaten, by using your own assessments about how big a margin a team is likely to cover with their offensive power, or how close a weaker underdog may be able to keep in touch with a favourite and not lose by a huge margin.

Other key factors in all of this as well are team selections. In the 2017 NFL season Green Bay Packers star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers took a huge injury and guess what, the challenge of the Packers for fell away because of that. Injuries to key players like quarterbacks and receivers can be telling things ahead of a game and they, of course, can influence those margins.

Match outrights, points spread, 1st quarter winner, anytime touchdown scorer, total 1st half touchdowns, over/under points, the list of NFL betting markets goes on and on and that’s just for a given game. There are the Super Bowl championship winners, Conference Winners, Divisional winners, spreads the number of wins that a team will pick up over the course of the regular season. It’s a pretty involved betting sport.

Narrow It Down

How to bet American Football intelligently can be done by narrowing all of this down and focusing on one or two markets that take your fancy. THere’s no need to get pulled all over the place and into areas where you haven’t done as much research. Manage your bankroll onto areas where you have studied the stats so that you aren’t spreading yourself too thinly.

If you are dialled in on Over/Under points then stick with that and try and hone your prediction skills there. If it’s Parlays (accumulators) which are your thing or spread betting or just the straightforward money line, became a tactical beast at understanding them. Become as clued-in about the workings of them as you can and learn to hone your risk/reward efforts there instead of going for the big Hail Mary into the unknown.

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How to Bet Chess Intelligently

Chess. It may not be the greatest of visual spectacles, but it can be deeply engaging and absorbing wondering what is going through a player’s mind. It’s a quiet, intense battle of minds which is in stark contrast the usual world of sport which is about being the quickest, the strongest and the most accurate. Not with Chess. It’s all about strategy, about moving and counter moving and trying to out-think your opponent.

Sometimes that opponent may be a computer like Deep Blue which is the computer designed by IBM that famously went out beat reigning World Champion Garry Kasparov who wasn’t particularly happy about it all. The Russian was visibly and mentally stressed in both of his meetings with the supercomputer. Anyway, back to the board game sport that is Chess and the betting opportunities which can arise from it.

Order and Structure

There is order and structure in Chess as there is in any sport. The sport even has its own Olympiad which is held every two years (nothing to do with the actual Olympics) and there is the World Championships for men and women as well. The FIDE Chess Grand Prix produces regular matches and there is also a World Cup. The pinnacle of the sport is becoming a Grandmaster which requires strongest conditions to be met before having the title bestowed upon a player.

So there is actually quite a lot of betting opportunities that are presented in Chess. You may have to go and look around for the right bookmaker that will carry more of the Chess markets that you are looking for. Commonly you may find bookmakers have limited markets only focusing on the outright winner of a given event, such as the Chess World Cup. But others can allow you to expand.

Expand your mind

How to bet on Chess intelligently is a pretty fitting notion to think about given this mentally tough and challenging game. There’s nothing wrong on betting on those outright markets if you find the right price for your selection against value. But there a far more detailed betting options to wrap your mind around. For example, you may find a Number of Moves market where you can guess the number of moves before a given event in a match happens (say the capture of a piece).

Moves betting in chess is pretty big and popular and these are market options where you decide how many moves a game will be decided in and these options are presented in over/under format, say for example over 45.5 moves. The average number of moves in a Chess game is said to be 30 while it’s rare that one goes over 60 moves.

There is also betting opportunities to be taken on the pieces in a game. Yes, Chess betting can get that detailed. You can back for example, a pawn to be the first piece to be taken in each of the first four games of a match, or whether or not a pawn will be turned in a queen over a set amount of games, and even down to how many pawns (or just pieces in total) would be left standing on the board at the end of a game.

Break it down

But breaking down how to bet on Chess intelligently is probably worth steering away from those very niche type of markets where more randomness can cut value. Really do you have a way to predict how many pawns will be left? Is it easier to just pick the winner of that game for a 50/50 shot as opposed to a 1/16 shot (a chess game starts with 16 pawns)?

It may be worth instead looking at the major markets such a match winner and the winning margin of a player in a game.

Other ways to try and gauge your options is by looking at the ELO ratings in the game which is a ranking system based on the relative skill levels of players. For those bigger fans of the sport, subjective options can also come from looking at things like opening moves and the defence of opening moves of the players involved.

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Big Bets Bobby’s Take on the Oleksandr Usyk vs Tony Bellew Fight!

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It’s a historic night in British boxing history this Saturday. For the first time in history, Great Britain hosts a four-belt undisputed fight for all of the marbles in the cruiserweight division.

With the Ring Magazine title also on the line, Oleksandr Usyk vs Tony Bellew ticks all the boxes for a main attraction in the sport; despite this, Tony Bellew is under no illusions of the task ahead of him.

The ‘Bomber’s’ last two outings were against the faded David Haye. Stopping the ‘Hayemaker’ twice at heavyweight, Bellew is making the jump back down to the 200lbs division. Looking to reclaim the WBC title he vacated after beating Makabu in 2016, Bellew would add the WBA, IBF and WBO titles – as well as the Ring belt – to the green and gold strap, becoming Britain’s first ever four-belt champion.

The mountain to climb is huge. Usyk (15-0) – an unbeaten Ukrainian, and former Olympic champion – is travelling to Manchester looking to defend the gold he picked up in the inaugural World Boxing Super Series tournament. After beating Huck, Briedis and Gassiev on the way to claiming the Muhammad Ali trophy, the 31-year-old is no stranger to life on the road, having boxed and won in Russia, Latvia, Germany, USA and Poland all against home favourites.

The gulf in price between the two to get a victory on Saturday is fairly representative of the state of play. Bellew has a number of obstacles in front of him. Firstly, coming back down to cruiserweight will have been a hard slog in the final camp of Bellew’s career. Showing his power at heavyweight enabled the Liverpudlian to record victories against Haye, however, the lure of Usyk’s belts was too strong to consider bringing the Ukrainian up in weight.

Usyk’s technical ability is another hurdle Bellew will have to leap. Nicknamed the ‘Cat’, Usyk moves around the ring like a featherweight, showing lightness on his feet and a snappy jab able to control the pace of any fight. Bellew will be reliant on his one-punch power to breach the guard of the challenger, however, many have tried and failed in the past – notably the hard-hitting Gassiev.

Bellew’s left hook will be his biggest chance of landing an upset on Saturday night. Capable of wobbling the toughest of chins inside the squared circle, Bellew will have to throw the shot sparingly throughout the early rounds to avoid Usyk easily telegraphing it.

Oleksandr Usyk to beat Tony Bellew by decision or technical decision @ 15/8 (BetVictor)
Oleksandr Usyk to beat Tony Bellew by unanimous decision @ 3/1 (BetVictor)

At 1/6, Usyk’s price isn’t tempting enough to back him in the outright market, however, a win on the scorecards enables us to squeeze some value out. Bellew’s heart is huge, and with Usyk’s power questionable in the latter rounds, a fifth points win in his last seven fights is highly likely in Manchester.

15/8 can be found for any win on the cards, with 3/1 the price for a unanimous decision; both should be looked at closely. The concern is that Bellew will throw everything at Usyk in the late stages of the fight knowing that he is about to lose on the cards. Whether Usyk would pick off the ‘Bomber’ in this instance forcing a stoppage is a concern, but not enough of a concern to avoid backing these two selections.

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Big Bets Bobby’s Take on the Ryan Burnett Vs Nonito Donaire Fight!

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This Saturday sees a tantalising double header from the World Boxing Super Series as the SSE Arena Glasgow hosts two quarter-finals from the bantamweight and super-lightweight divisions.

With the profile of the WBSS growing rapidly, the attention surrounding these two fights has grabbed the attention of the British public, with two of the most exciting British fighters looking to advance into the semi-finals in front of a partizan crowd.

Ryan Burnett to beat Nonito Donaire on points @ 8/13 (BetVictor)

Ryan Burnett’s stock has risen quickly over the past few years. After unifying the bantamweight division in a comfortable victory over Zhanat Zhakiyanov last October (subsequently having to vacate the IBF title), the Northern Irishman defended successfully against Yonfrez Parejo earlier this year, in preparation for entering the WBSS tournament.

Picking the Filipino legend in the draw was a bold move from Burnett; a move that underlines his confidence at this weight. Further in the draw, however, Burnett will be tested to the extreme at bantamweight, with the dangerous Zolani Tete and the ‘Monster’ Naoya Inoue possibly awaiting him in the semi-finals and final.

Burnett, 26, won’t be overlooking Saturday’s opponent though. With a record of 38-5, Donaire is coming off of a recent loss to Carl Frampton at featherweight, however, is well renowned for being a tough, gutsy fighter. Donaire has only been stopped once in his career by Nicholas Walters; without a stoppage win since 2015, the smart money lies in Burnett getting the job done over the distance fairly comfortably. The only slight risk comes in the likelihood of Burnett getting cut. The WBA champion has the skillset to overcome the Filipino, however, has shown tenancies to mark up quite easily in fights. If he can negate the challenger in the early rounds, Burnett should win this at a canter.

Josh Taylor to beat Ryan Martin by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 8/15 (BetVictor)

Taylor is on course to become one of the UK’s best fighters. After recently scooping the British Fighter of the Year award, Taylor is looking to advance in the super-lightweight tournament against the fairly untested American Ryan Martin.

Despite remaining unbeaten, Martin’s standout name is a win over Breidis Prescott in his last outing (famed for stopping Amir Khan early in his career). Martin’s other 21 wins have come against fairly poor opposition, with Taylor looking to show his size and strength in this quarter-final.

Taylor’s recent wins over Ohara Davies, Miguel Vazquez and Viktor Postol have elevated him into the limelight in Scotland, as well as the UK. With eleven KOs in his thirteen victories, the 27-year-old southpaw is becoming well-known for his power at super-lightweight, with a WBC silver belt to defend in the WBSS tournament.

A win on Saturday would see him through to a semi-final bout with Belarusian Ivan Baranchyk, however, unbeaten American Regis Prograis is widely considered the best name in the tournament, with a potential final clash between two southpaws – Burnett and Prograis – one to wish for.

Taylor has passed every test thrown his way so far, and with a lively Scottish crowd behind him on Saturday night, expect the ‘Tartan Tornado’ to shine again. A stoppage is likely, with Martin becoming overwhelmed in his second fight outside of the US.

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Bobby’s Best Weekend Betting Events – 3rd-4th November

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American Football – NFL – Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers

I love following the NFL throughout the season and I must admit that I have soft spot for the Steelers. It was good to see them get back to winning ways on week eight with a straightforward success over the Cleveland Browns. It gets much tougher for them this week and their game against the Ravens is set to be an intriguing battle.

They’ve already faced one another this season and the Steelers will be out for revenge after being defeated at Heinz Field. Despite a dominant second quarter, the Steelers couldn’t deal with the Ravens and Randy Fichtner was largely culpable for that loss. He should have learnt plenty of lessons from that disappointing defeat and they will be looking to continue their superb recent form.

The Ravens have failed to build upon that success, losing three of their subsequent four NFL matches. Their narrow defeat to the Saints was particularly hard to take. The reason why I love this fixture is that it often throws the form-book out of the window and games between the pair are always tight. Each side has won three of the last six meetings and this could go either way. The Steelers are in excellent form coming into this clash but they are outsiders for this game in Baltimore and I cannot for this match to kick off. It is my number 1  big betting event this Weekend and it should be a cracker!

This match can be viewed on Sky Sports Action on Sunday night in the UK.

Soccer – Premier League – Arsenal vs Liverpool

The 2nd of my big betting events comes from the Premier League and it is starting to hot up and as we head into the frantic festive fixture list. There are a number of fascinating games which could determine who finishes in the top four. Arsenal have been a breath of fresh air under Unai Emery and they are playing some wonderful football under the former Sevilla coach. The Gunners dropped points last weekend against Crystal Palace and they’ll be determined to bounce back here.

They couldn’t have asked for a tougher fixture. The North London side will host in-form Liverpool at the Emirates and this game always throws up plenty of goals. There were 10 goals between the pair in two meetings last season and this is always a thriller. August 2015 was the last time that there were fewer than four goals in this fixture and with both managers taking an attack-minded approach to games, this could be game of the season!

Liverpool are a joy to watch and they are sumptuous going forward at the moment. Mo Salah is back to his best and Sadio Mane is full of confidence. The betting is interestingly poised and both sides will be keen to avoid dropping points at this crucial stage of the season. The Reds haven’t lost any of their last three visits to this ground and they’ve understandably been very popular in the betting.

If you only watch one Premier League match this season, this should be it!

UK viewers can enjoy the spectacle from the Emirates on BT Sport 1.

Boxing – Ryan Burnett vs Nonito Donaire

As you know, I love watching and betting on the boxing each weekend and there is another bout that I’m very much looking forward to. It’s the WBA Super World Bantamweight clash between Ryan Burnett and Nonito Donaire and there is plenty on the line for both fighters. It’s taking place at the SSE Hydro in Glasgow and there should be a decent crowd in situe to enjoy this quarter-final of the World Boxing Series.

It’s Burnett’s second defence of the belt and he is currently the tournament’s number one seed. The Northern Irishman is understandably the favourite but he may not have it all his own way. Before he can think about the prospect of facing Zolani Tete, he must overcome this stiff challenge from the impressive Nonito Donaire. He is probably best remembered for his unanimous decision loss to Carl Frampton but he appears to have the bit between his teeth and should give a good account of himself.

From following them both on social media, I know that the pair are good mates but don’t expect a friendly encounter here. Burnett is expected to progress but this is far from straightforward for him and it is a fascinating match-up.

TV coverage in the UK hasn’t been announced yet but it will be streamed via the WBSS YouTube channel

Soccer – Premier League – Bournemouth vs Manchester United

What to make of Jose Mourinho? The Portuguese is a tremendous character and I love seeing his post-match antics but he’s surely up against it at Manchester United. His side face Bournemouth and it’s going to be an intriguing 90 minutes at the Vitality.

I love watching Bournemouth and I’ve made plenty of money from betting on them this season. The Cherries are a young, energetic side who embody their manager Eddie Howe. They should be able to give Manchester United plenty to think about here. The Red Devils squeezed past Everton at the weekend but they are hardly convincing and it’ll be interesting to see how they set up here. Romelu Lukaku was left out at the weekend and is seemingly short on confidence at the moment. Will Anthony Martial continue his stint in the side?

I can’t wait to see Bournemouth attack Manchester United from the off. The home crowd will be right behind them and this should be an excellent spectacle for the neutral. Jose Mourinho’ side will need to be at their best here and they will start as favourites but it could be close and both sides stand a good chance of picking up a precious three points from this lunchtime kick-off.

UK viewers can watch this game on BT Sport 1 on Saturday.

See the LATEST ODDS now for the above FEATURED BETS at BOBBY’S WEEKEND BETS!

 

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Bobby’s Best Weekend Betting Events

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Soccer – Championship – Middlesbrough vs Derby County

I’m fascinated by the Championship. It is one of the most exciting soccer leagues in the world and it is also hugely enjoyable to have a bet on. Middlesbrough can boast the best defence in the league and Tony Pulis’ side have conceded just seven times so far this season. Meanwhile, Derby love to pour forward at every opportunity and have an abundance of firepower.

Frank Lampard’s side are very easy on the eye and it should create a fascinating clash of styles. This is an intriguing betting event because Middlesbrough’s style has been very effective so far at home but they were unable to beat Nottingham Forest or Swansea at the Riverside Stadium and they could find it difficult to keep Derby at arms length. I’ve been really impressed with Mason Mount and Jack Marriott for the Rams and they could realistically head back to the East Midlands with something to show for their efforts. Derby have struggled to break down compact sides this seasons and Middlesbrough fall into that category although their run of clean sheets is over. This is a battle between two sides who may meet again in the end of season play-offs and I can’t wait to have a bet on this top-of-the-table tussle.

This match can be enjoyed on both Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event in the UK 

NFL International Series – Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

I love the fact that the NFL is now an International game and many of my mates who live across Europe and further afield are all talking about this fantastic sport. This game is played at Wembley and a full crowd is expected at England’s National Stadium. I think this pitch is perfect for hosting NFL and it’s another intriguing match-up. We’ve already heard that Blake Bortles will start this contest with Cody Kessler dropping to the bench. and this could make all the difference for the Jaguars. It’s fair to say that Bortles had a couple of disappointing quarters against the Texans but he has far too much quality and should be able to bounce back.

This is an interesting game because neither side has made the dream-start to the new season but it hasn’t been a complete write-up either. Both have identical records in their respective conferences and a win in this game could be the catalyst for an unbeaten run. After winning their opening two matches, the Jaguars have been disappointing, winning just one of their last five.  Despite this, their defensive record is relatively respectable and they look well-drilled. The Eagles are always expected to challenge  but they got off to a slow start and they will be looking to take full advantage of the Jaguar’s problems in offence. It’s an early start at Wembley but I cannot wait to have a wager on this weekend’s NFL action.

You can watch Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadephia Eagles on BBC2 in the UK. Coverage begins at 1pm. 

Boxing – Kubrat Pulev vs Hughie Fury

I am going to be keeping a keen eye on this bout as the winner could potentially face Anthony Joshua in the next 12 months. This IBF heavyweight title eliminator should be a closely-fought battle. I’ve got a lot of time for Hughie Fury after he overcame acne congoblata before returning to the ring.

He has nothing to lose here. As the cousin of Tyson, you are always likely to get a big performance from young Hughie and at just 24-years old, he is a precocious talent. In contrast, Kubrat Pulev is a household name and that makes this fight particularly intriguing.  The Bulgarian has home advantage here and he does have years of experience but at 37-years old, can he compete and match an energetic opponent who knows his way around the ring? Pulev was already pencilled in to fight Joshua last year but injury prevented him from facing the Englishman and he’ll be determined to get a second shot at the Englishman. I can’t wait to see how Pulev deals with Fury’s enthusiasm and unlike a number of other match-ups on the card, this could genuinely go either way.

UK residents can enjoy this fascinating bout on Channel 5. Coverage starts at 9pm.

Soccer – Dutch Eredivisie – Ajax vs Feyenoord

European Soccer is fascinating although one-sided title races often take some of the enjoyment away. It is certainly not a one-way street in the Eredivisie where both PSV and Ajax have enjoyed wonderful starts to the new season.

I love watching both clubs play their football and the all-out attack style of the Eredivisie makes it the perfect league to wager on. Whilst Ajax and PSV sit in the top two positions, Feyenoord are waiting to pounce, should one of them slip-up and they will see this as the perfect opportunity to make up some ground. I have never associated Ajax with defending but they have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches and they will be looking to continue that sequence here. Feyenoord are always entertaining to watch and their habit of both scoring and conceding makes them fun to bet on. This game could have a big say on the title race in the Netherlands and I cannot wait to see how it pans out.

This game will be shown on the delay by Eleven Sports UK but they will also be streaming this match via their Facebook Page

See the LATEST ODDS now for the above FEATURED BETS at BOBBY’S WEEKEND BETS!

 

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Big Bets Bobby’s Take on the Hughie Fury Vs Kubrat Pulev Fight!

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Our attention turns to Sofia, Bulgaria, this weekend, as Hughie Fury (21-1) makes the trip east to face the feared yet underrated Kubrat Pulev (25-1) in a final eliminator for the IBF world heavyweight title.

The winner, in theory, will be in place to fight Anthony Joshua for the majority of the heavyweight marbles sometime in 2019; boxing politics will no doubt place hurdles in front of this assumption.

Hughie Fury is coming off of a fifth round stoppage against Sam Sexton where the 24-year-old claimed the British heavyweight title. Previous to this, Fury lost a contentious twelve round decision against, then, WBO world heavyweight champion Joseph Parker in Manchester; Parker would go on to lose his strap in a unification against Joshua.

Pulev’s recent story has been far less straight-forward. An injury towards the end of his camp forced the Bulgarian to pull out of a world title fight against Joshua; Carlos Takam stepped in and came close to taking the champion the distance. Pulev hasn’t fought since dissecting Kevin Johnson over the distance in April 2017 – that’s close to 18 months outside of the ring!

The 37-year-old has constantly claimed that he has been avoided by some of the bigger names in the sport. Dillian Whyte and Jarrell Miller have apparently turned down chances to travel to Bulgaria for an IBF final eliminator, leaving Hughie to step up.

It’s a huge ask of the Brit to travel to Sofia and upset the Cobra, however, momentum is arguably on his side.

Hughie Fury to beat Kubrat Pulev @ 6/5 (BetFred/BetVictor)

It’s an old saying in boxing, but fighters can get old overnight. Father-time has caught up with the best of fighters over the decades, and it doesn’t look like changing any time soon. At 37, Pulev has miles on the clock. With 26 fights as a professional, coupled with over 100 as an amateur, there is a clear gulf between him and his opponent of 24.

Yes, experience is key – something that the Cobra has in bucketloads – in boxing, but under the tutelage of Peter Fury, Hughie has had long enough in camp to learn from the mistakes he made against Joseph Parker. He controlled the fight well on the front foot, but in failing to throw his right hand he allowed the Kiwi to scoop up the contentious rounds.

Pulev is a rough-and-tough rugged style fighter. He throws a dangerous left hook and is able to do a lot of his good work on the inside. If Fury can box smart, keeping his distance yet controlling the fight with a stiff jab, then the home fighter may become frustrated with the challenger.

If Fury can remain cute throughout the fight, with little flick punches here and there, there is a chance he can make Pulev look silly in some of the rounds; with the scorecards tending to favour the home fighter the pressure will be on Hughie to make convincing arguments of the 50/50 rounds.

Fury is the momentum bet. Pulev is currently an unknown quantity, with the pressure of the Sofia faithful firmly on his shoulders. It’ll be tight, and it’ll probably go the distance, but there’s value in backing Fury to pinch it.